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Prediction Contest 2016

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In my capacity as President of the Economics Graduate Student Society at SFU, I set up a prediction contest. We hosted a pub night and I used the opportunity to solicit predictions on a wide range of topics. The person with the lowest Brier score will be the winner.

The predictions were made on March 12th, 2016 (before Lee Sedol’s fourth match against AlphaGo) and they will all be resolved on July 1st, 2016. I report the predictions and their outcomes (when they occur) in the table below:

Robyn G. Hanh T. Ted W. Peter N. John C. Chris S. Brett K. Natt H. Garrett P. Ricardo M. Adib R. Average Outcome
Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States 0 50 70 99 77 85 100 100 90 100 80 77.4
Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States 30 50 30 4 15 25 60 50 10 40 70 34.9
A single terrorist attack in an OECD country will claim at least 100 lives 5 50 40 10 12 50 95 5 10 0 30 27.9
A single terrorist attack in an OECD country will claim at least 50 lives 5 50 55 20 34 60 95 10 15 10 80 39.5
The price of crude oil will be higher than 40 USD per barrel as of July 1st, 2016 70 50 65 25 58 60 20 80 40 80 70 56.2
The price of crude oil will be higher than 45 USD per barrel as of July 1st, 2016 50 50 65 15 41 30 15 70 20 20 55 39.2
An American golfer will win the US Open 50 50 5 50 63 20 0 0 70 70 70 40.7
Serena Williams will win the Women’s Singles tennis tournament at the French Open 65 50 15 60 60 90 0 50 30 70 60 50.0
The character who was stabbed in the last episode of Game of Thrones will be resurrected in the first episode of the next season 0 50 30 20 73 100 100 10 20 50 40 44.8
That character will be resurrected in the first five episodes of the next season 20 50 55 40 88 100 80 10 80 50 30 54.8
That character will be resurrected by the end of the next season 40 50 60 60 91 100 100 10 99 30 30 60.9
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will earn more in its opening weekend than Man of Steel ($116,619,362) 50 50 60 85 47 85 100 70 85 20 80 66.5
Maduro will remain in power in Venezuela 90 50 50 10 94 60 25 90 80 80 20 59.0
There will be a national election in Spain 100 50 50 50 80 70 80 5 80 0 70 57.7
Conditional on there being a Spanish election, Rajoy will be elected the next Prime Minister of Spain 90 50 60 50 48 50 100 50 45 10 80 57.5
ISIS will maintain control of Al-Raqqah 90 50 70 70 96 100 15 70 60 50 90 69.2
The Canadian dollar will be lower than 0.76 USD 20 50 25 80 45 76 0 70 40 10 20 39.6
The econ department will select a new Chair and Associate Chair 50 50 15 75 53 50 100 5 40 80 80 54.4
The winner of the NHL Western Conference will win the Stanley Cup 75 50 75 50 37 100 0 50 45 10 60 50.2
AlphaGo will defeat Lee Sedol in all five Go matches 90 50 35 100 100 0 0 100 90 90 50 64.1 FALSE
Brier Score 0.81 0.25 0.1225 1 1 0 0 1 0.81 0.81 0.25 0.41

 

Updates

March 13th: Lee Sedol avenges humankind in his fourth match against AlphaGo.

The post Prediction Contest 2016 appeared first on The Economics Detective.

Prediction Contest 2016

In my capacity as President of the Economics Graduate Student Society at SFU, I set up a prediction contest. We hosted a pub night and I used the opportunity to solicit predictions on a wide range of topics. The person with the lowest Brier score will be the winner.

The predictions were made on March 12th, 2016 (before Lee Sedol’s fourth match against AlphaGo) and they will all be resolved on July 1st, 2016. I report the predictions and their outcomes (when they occur) in the table below: (more…)

The post Prediction Contest 2016 appeared first on The Economics Detective.

I Went on a Twitter Rampage for #TheTriggering

Fellow Vancouverite and accomplished internet troll Lauren Southern started a hashtag called #TheTriggering. The idea is that every March 9th, everyone tweets out all their non-PC opinions and jokes at the same time under this hashtag in defense of free speech.

I’m usually not big on participating in the culture war, but what the heck? Might as well have fun with this hashtag while it lasts. I started with the most controversial statement I could think of:

Typing that, I noticed something strange. Even though #TheTriggering was the top trending hashtag, it wouldn’t auto-complete when I typed it. Other people noticed it too.

It’s strange that a company like Twitter would take a side in the culture war. After all, the harder the culture war rages, the more people flock to Twitter to complain about it.


(more…)

The post I Went on a Twitter Rampage for #TheTriggering appeared first on The Economics Detective.